Newspaper recently reported that the 4th quarter condominium sales in Boston tanked from last year. Once again, out local market gets unfairly trashed by the media who grab a few numbers without understanding what they are actually looking at.
Here is the problem with just looking at the numbers … the LINK summary does not accurately reflect the market trends because it does not include an analysis of the new development(s) closings and unit prices, real data that would skew the average / median and total sales. The simple answer to the year to year variations is:
1. Downtown Boston has been solid through all 3 years.
2. High End Condominium Sales in 2007 compared to 2005 - $1 Million plus, $2 Million plus and $3 Million plus is at or higher than
record levels. This fact is very different than LINK’s 4th Quarter comparison and the story trend as reported in local papers.
3. The difference and apparent drop from 4Q 2006 was due to a spurt of high end sales in 06 that we did not have in 4Q 2005 or 4Q 2007. 4th Quarter 2006 saw 118 sales that closed totaling $121M at Folio, 500 Atlantic, and 360 Newbury.
4. Actually, the total absorption for 2007 exceeded 2006 so reporting that the 4th quarter tanked base on incomplete numbers and analysis is reckless at best.
5. We do continue to see the under $500k transactions are fewer in Downtown Boston but are increasing in Urban Emerging Markets outside of Boston.
